Availability Bias

Which kills more people — sharks or falling coconuts? Nearly everyone answers sharks. The coconuts win by a wide margin. But sharks have films.

The principle: the mind estimates how common a thing is by how easily an example comes to mind. Easy to recall feels like frequent. This shortcut served us well in a small village, where everything memorable was also genuinely common. It serves us badly in a world where one dramatic event is broadcast to a billion people.

So we fear plane crashes and skip the flu shot. We buy lottery tickets because the winner was on television, and no one broadcasts the forty million losers.

The correction is a habit: when a risk feels large, ask for the base rate — the dull statistic, not the vivid story. Vividness is a measure of drama, not of frequency. The news is a museum of exceptions.