Mirror Heuristic

When you cannot judge a thing directly — a candidate, a theory, a gadget — judge it by what it reflects: how others behave around it. Do the smart people in the field respect it? Do its critics argue seriously or dismiss nervously? The reflections carry information the object hides.

This is not delegation of judgment; it is reading the environment. In a forest you cannot see the path — but you can see where the ground is worn. The worn ground is other people's walking, compressed into evidence.

The danger is obvious: mirrors reflect mirrors. A crowd can admire an emperor's clothes all the way to the parade. The heuristic fails exactly when everyone else is also watching everyone else — fashion, bubbles, panics, the whole economy of imitation.

So use reflections as the first pass, not the verdict. Ask what the thoughtful minority does, what the critics concede, what survives being mirrored for years. And when every mirror agrees too perfectly, look at the object itself again. Unanimity is the one reflection that should always make you suspicious.