Surprise Bias

Nobody wakes up and chooses a bias. Surprise Bias simply moves in, like a relative who never formally arrived.

The bias is not stupidity; it is thrift. The mind evolved to decide quickly with little information, and it still runs that old software on a new machine. Most days the thrift serves us. Some days it quietly picks our pocket.

It is worth keeping in your pocket not because it is always right, but because it is always available. A tool you carry beats a perfect tool you left at home.

Every January, the gym fills; by March, the regulars have the place to themselves again. The calendar changed nothing. The people who stayed simply stopped asking the calendar for permission.

Time is the one currency the Reserve Bank does not print more of. That is all. A small tool, honestly kept, beats a large one admired.