Base-Rate Neglect Fallacy

Base-Rate Neglect Fallacy is the argument equivalent of a cracked bangle — it shines, it jingles, and it will cut you.

The fallacy survives because it is comfortable. It lets you keep your conclusion and skip the work. The cure is unfashionable: slow down, ask what the evidence actually shows, and let the conclusion follow.

In every examination hall there are two kinds of silence: the silence of those who prepared, and the silence of those who are preparing excuses. The room can hear the difference.

Learning is the one wealth that survives every partition of fortune. The idea has done its job if, the next time it happens to you, you smile before you react.